Prospects for the pesticide market in the second half of 2019
In the first half of the year, China's pesticide supply and demand was sluggish, and exports were light. After the market reached a high level, the waves fell. As of June 30, China's crude drug price index was 115.41, down 2.07% year-on-year, down 1.15% from the previous month; the overall price index fell 6.06%. Judging from the prices of more than 70 kinds of pesticides and intermediates monitored by Anhui Zhongnong Zongheng Agrochemical Information Consulting Co., Ltd., there were 38 kinds, which were flat and 5 kinds, down 27 kinds.
According to industry analysts, China's pesticides are gradually entering the off-season, and the original drug market is still in the decline. It is expected that the overall stability will be around September. From the perspective of large-scale products, the pesticide market may be differentiated. Among them, the demand for herbicides and pesticides is still sluggish, and prices continue to fall; while the demand for fungicides increases, and the market is stable.
Herbicides: weak demand Continued callback
In the first half of the year, China's herbicide price index fell by 7.3%; the herbicide price index was 97.23, down 12.09% year-on-year.
The decline in the herbicide price index is directly related to the fall in the price of large tonnage herbicides. However, some small and medium-sized varieties are at a high price due to tight supply. For example, the ketones of mesotrione, ketene, and oxadiazon are at a high level due to the low starting prices of raw materials and raw materials. June 30 The price is 260,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), 170,000 yuan, 325,000 yuan. At present, the supply of nicosulfuron, ketene, thiabendone and oxadiazon is tight, and the price is still at a high level. However, the demand for other ketone-based drugs has gradually turned weak, and the price has a correction expectation.
At the same time, the market for amide herbicides has also increased in stages, but as demand has turned weak, prices have rebounded. At present, the price of acetochlor original drug returns to less than 20,000 yuan, the price of metolachlor and propisochlor are respectively 24,000 yuan and 24,500 yuan, and there is still room for downward adjustment in later prices.
The operating rate of amino acid herbicide plants remained high, and the inventory increased, while the demand in North America and South America was still weak. The mainstream transaction price of glyphosate (95%) in China was 23,000 yuan, and the mainstream price of FOB in Shanghai was 3450~3500. Dollar. As the market enters the off-season, the factory operating rate remains relatively high, the sales pressure is relatively high, and the raw material glycine support is weak. It is expected that the price of glyphosate will be adjusted downwards to around 22,000 yuan in the second half of the year, while the terminal preparation price is stable.
In terms of glufosinate, the competition between manufacturers has been fierce due to the increase in stocks and the release of new capacity. The current price has dropped to 120,000 yuan, a drop of 60% compared with the beginning of the year. The latter market depends on the actual supply capacity of new capacity. Excluding the price line to expand prices, but the possibility of a big drop is not big. In addition, L-glufosinate is a representative product with advanced technology and higher activity, and the market capacity will continue to expand in the future.
Insecticides: supply and demand are two light, prices are falling
In the first half of the year, China's pesticide price index fell by 10.98%. Nicotine products are still in the doldrums, and the pyrethroids are simultaneously lower, which has dragged down the price index of pesticides to a certain extent. The price index of Zhongnong Lihua insecticide original drug showed that the prices of imidacloprid, cypermethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin were the highest in June, down by 5.1%, 5% and 4.4% respectively. The insecticide price index fell as a result of lower prices of large tonnage products.
China's chlorpyrifos market is weak and prices are falling. The main transaction price of chlorpyrifos (97%) of the original drug is 44,500~4.5 million, and the mainstream price of 97% of the original drug port of chlorpyrifos is 6050~6100 USD. Considering the weakening demand for downstream pesticides and the possibility of being replaced, it is not ruled out that the price of chlorpyrifos in the second half of the year may still fall.
The avermectin drug is stable. The upstream manufacturers are mainly listed, the supply is not smooth, and the downstream procurement is not active. At present, the price of avermectin powder is 780,000 yuan; the foreign trade order of the original salt of Awei salt is increased, and the circulation channel has some low-priced sources, the price is 1.18 million yuan. . Although manufacturers are cautiously taking orders, the price is high, but as the market changes into the spot source into the market, the overall price may go down.
“The demand for pesticides in field crops continues to be weak, and the demand for pesticides in some cash crops is relatively strong, which has become a bright spot in the plain market.” Yang Sen, Marketing Director of Jiangxi Zhonghe Chemical Co., Ltd., said that the price of some fruits and vegetables was at a high level in the first half of the year, stimulating the enthusiasm of farmers. This may bring some support to the market of pesticide-related products.
Fungicide: supply tension, stable market
In the first half of the year, the demand for fungicides in China was acceptable, and the market was stable overall. The price index of Zhongnong Lihua fungicides was 131.33 points, up 14.65% year-on-year, which was basically the same as last month.
Affected by safety inspections and environmental inspections, pesticide companies are restricted in operation, shortage of intermediates and high prices. Zhang Bo, a senior researcher at Anhui Zhongnong Zongheng Agrochemical Information Consulting Co., Ltd., believes that the supply of small tonnage varieties of fungicides is tight and can easily cause market fluctuations. At present, the shortage of varieties is at a high level, some products are high in price and no market. The restructuring of the intermediate supply chain requires a process. The supply of fungicides is expected to remain tight in the second half of the year.
According to the monitoring of Zhongnong vertical and horizontal, the general operating rate of azoxystrobin, difenoconazole, fluconazole, tebuconazole, flucyclazole, enoylmorpholine, carbendazim, iprodione and other original pharmaceutical factories Lower, tight supply; while propiconazole, pyraclostrobin and other products in stocks are higher, prices have fallen.
Shi Pingtian, general manager of WorldCom China, believes that the supply-side reforms have led to a discontinuous supply of raw materials, and the global economic slowdown has made the demand for pesticides optimistic. With the continuation of the environmental protection high-pressure situation and safety inspection, the scope of rectification has been gradually expanded, and the downstream channel inventory has been gradually digested. It is expected that the pesticide market will be oriented to the terminal demand, and the demand will continue to be released. The tight varieties are still dominated by high-level consolidation.