Global pesticide market flat in six months in 2019, regional market developments vary
According to Phillips McDougall's preliminary statistical analysis, the global market value of chemical pesticides for crops in 2019 is estimated to be US $ 57.790 billion at the ex-factory price level, an increase of only 0.4% year-on-year, and basically the same as the previous year; total sales including non-crop pesticide It was 65.590 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year. It can be seen that the non-crop pesticide market increased even more, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% and sales of US $ 7.88 billion. Phillips McDougall said more precise survey data is pending.
Brazil is the world's largest pesticide country, and its pesticide market continues to recover in 2019, thus reversing the decline of the global pesticide market. After a sharp decline from 2014 to 2017, the Brazilian pesticide market has rebounded for two consecutive years.
The growth of the dollar meter market continues to be affected by the exchange rate, and the strength of the US dollar partially offsets the market growth. In addition, pesticide prices also have a negative effect on market growth. Have you ever remembered that China's generic pesticide prices rose rapidly in 2018, driving the growth of the global market; and the price level in 2019 will be lower.
In 2019, Asia Pacific remains the largest regional market. If measured in terms of national currencies, the region's pesticide market is expected to grow; but in terms of dollars, the market will decline. Adverse weather conditions have also affected pesticide markets in some major countries. For example, India experienced drought first and then flooded; Australia continued to experience severe drought; and Southeast Asian countries also experienced dry weather. The Japan Plant Protection Association estimates that the country's pesticide sales increased slightly year-on-year, mainly due to increased market demand for herbicides. In China, the area of soybean and rapeseed has increased; our government hopes to reduce its dependence on imports by developing agriculture in order to respond to trade tensions. In 2019, sales of pesticides in the Asia-Pacific region (in US dollars) are expected to decline by 1.6%.
In Latin America, its pesticide market has achieved substantial growth; especially in Brazil, its pesticide company's sales performance has recorded a record year-on-year increase, which has pushed the country's market strongly. In previous years, severe drought in Argentina has limited pesticide sales; significant growth has been achieved in 2019. However, hyperinflation has limited the growth of dollar-denominated sales. In 2019, the Latin American market will rebound strongly, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to reach 17.6%.
Adverse weather conditions also affect the European market. Dry heat in northern and eastern Europe has caused less pests and diseases. In recent years, most of the growth in the European market has come from market growth in the former Soviet Union. Factors affecting the European market include: in recent years, the ban on some major pesticide products; uncertainty during the Brexit period; and the weakness of the pound against the US dollar. In 2019, pesticide sales in Europe may fall 6.2% year-on-year.
The North American pesticide market is affected by adverse weather conditions. In the Midwestern United States, severe cold and storms in the first quarter of 2019, coupled with subsequent floods, delayed the use of pesticides and spring sowing before the season. Unfavorable weather conditions have reduced farmers ’expectations of crop yields and future incomes, and the ongoing tension between China and the United States trade war has hit the enthusiasm of American farmers for production inputs. China is the largest export destination of US soybeans, so falling demand has led to an increase in US soybean inventories and falling prices. In 2019, pesticide sales in the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) may fall by 10.3% year-on-year.
In addition, pesticide sales in the Middle East and Africa region may decline by 1.8% year-on-year in 2019.
Phillips McDougall noted that the average planted area in the southern hemisphere has fallen in the last five years due to planting delays. The trade dispute between the United States and China has boosted business between China and Latin America, which has led to a good start for the Latin American crop pesticide market in 2020.
Because of the El Nino phenomenon, weather conditions may be even worse in 2020. Such weather conditions will continue the drought in Australia, and the pesticide market will further decline; while in Brazil, the pesticide market is expected to grow due to the increase in agricultural exports, but the expected decline in crop output will have an offsetting effect on the market. Conversely, the El Niño phenomenon will bring abundant rainfall to Argentina and western Latin America, or it will raise Argentina's economic expectations and increase farmers' income, thereby increasing demand for pesticide markets. Similarly, in North America, such weather conditions may warm the northern United States and Canada, and bring severe rainfall to the southern United States. Both factors are likely to increase market demand for pesticides.
In Europe, Brexit remains an important topic and affects European markets. Increased management pressure on traditional pesticides is also another major factor affecting the market in the region. EU member states have suggested banning glyphosate, especially France. The French Ministry of Agriculture has clearly stated that it will gradually stop using glyphosate products in the next 3 years; although the Austrian House of Commons has voted in favor of banning glyphosate, the Austrian government has not fulfilled the European Commission's management standards, effectively preventing 2020 Decision to ban glyphosate from January 1. Of course, if parliament votes again, it will still pose a threat to glyphosate retention. Phillips McDougall predicts that these changes will benefit glyphosate alternatives and biologics.
Pesticide innovation will help the global pesticide market to grow slightly year-on-year in 2020. This year, there may be 11 new active ingredients on the market. These new products include: the discovery of Mitsui Chemicals, the metadiamide insecticide broflanilide developed by Mitsui Chemicals and BASF; the succinate dehydrogenase inhibitor (SDHI) fungicide developed by Sumitomo Chemical inpyrfluxam; bixlozone, an isoxazolinone herbicide developed by Fumex, can simultaneously control broad-leaved weeds and grass weeds; BASF's herbicide cinmethylin (trade name: Luximo), the first to control ryegrass for 30 years 1 compound with a new mechanism of action; Meiji's insecticide flupyrimin, which is a nicotinic acetylcholine receptor acting agent, is safe for pollinating insects ... In addition, with the further development of herbicide (non-glyphosate) biological traits The promotion will increase the market demand for higher-priced pesticides, especially dicamba, 2,4-drops, etc.
FMC's description of the patent status of Oxazolamide